Same-sex vote likely to be tight in Canada

I found this in todays paper and thought I should share this: [quote:2f564b06ff][b:2f564b06ff]Same-sex vote likely to be tight Narrow majority of MPs would agree to retain current legislation, survey shows [/b:2f564b06ff]By MICHAEL VALPY and CAROLINE ALPHONSO AND RHÉAL SÉGUIN Wednesday, February 1, 2006 From Wednesday's Globe and Mail An expected vote in the next House of Commons to re-establish the traditional definition of marriage would be close, but a narrow majority of MPs would likely agree to retain same-sex marriage, a Globe and Mail survey has found. According to the tabulation, 153 incoming MPs either voted for same-sex legislation in June or indicated they would if the matter came before the House again. Another 136 either voted against the legislation or said they oppose same-sex marriage. Nineteen members either would not comment or said variously they would abstain, follow their constituents' wishes or had not yet made up their minds. But their comments suggest that at least some of them do support same-sex unions. Prime-minister-designate Stephen Harper has pledged to introduce a resolution asking MPs whether they want to reopen the controversial debate, and promised it would be a free vote in which MPs can choose a side according to their conscience rather than their party. Asked at his first post-election news conference last week whether he intended to move forward on the matter in the new Parliament, Mr. Harper replied: "I would prefer to do it sooner than later, but not immediately." The Globe arrived at its numbers by contacting new MPs or people connected with their campaigns, tabulating how re-elected MPs voted on the previous legislation, Bill C-38, and checking with cabinet ministers who followed prime ministerial orders to vote in favour of C-38 but were thought to be susceptible to changing their minds in a free vote. A substantial chunk of the 67 new MPs elected 10 days ago supports retaining same-sex marriage. That number includes at least three of the 10 new Conservative MPs elected in Quebec and two new Ontario Tories, as well as all 12 newly elected New Democrats and probably the 10 fresh faces from the Bloc Québécois. Queen's University law professor Kathleen Lahey, an advocate for the legal recognition of same-sex relationships, said she strongly doubted the new government would be in a hurry to move on Mr. Harper's pledge. Prof. Lahey noted that voters rejected some of the party's candidates most closely allied with the Christian right and most vehemently opposed to same-sex marriage as their connections became more apparent. In particular, she cited Cindy Silver, considered likely to win election for the Tories in North Vancouver until reports surfaced that she was an anti-same-sex marriage activist. Laurie Arron, director of advocacy for the homosexual rights organization Egale, identified 34 first-time Conservative candidates as being closely identified with the Christian right and said only 10 of them were elected -- mostly in Ontario. McGill University political scientist Christopher Manfredi, an academic specialist on the Conservative Party, pointed out, as others have, that Mr. Harper is a libertarian economic conservative rather than a social conservative. Prof. Manfredi said he did not think it would be Mr. Harper's personal inclination to vigorously promote a social conservative agenda, especially in a minority-government Parliament. He said Mr. Harper has the political capital to withstand pressure from the social conservative constituency that backs him because he has succeeded so manifestly in bringing the party from disarray to power in five years. The previous House of Commons passed Bill C-38 in June by a vote of 158 to 133. Thirteen MPs were absent and four were paired -- a parliamentary tradition in which MPs who favour the legislation but cannot be present are matched with an equal number opposed. About 30 Liberals who voted in favour of C-38 were defeated, leading opponents of same-sex marriage such as Charles McVety, president of Canada Family Action Coalition, to declare the Jan. 23 election a "tremendous victory for families nationwide . . . and a great victory for marriage." But replacing the defeated Liberals were an equal number of first-time MPs from other parties who favour same-sex marriage. The Globe survey suggests that 153 MPs -- just one shy of a majority -- would vote in favour of marriage including homosexual couples and 136 would be opposed. That leaves 19 MPs unaccounted for. Five, all Conservatives, said they would vote as their constituents wanted. Three MPs wouldn't say how they would vote: a Liberal and a Conservative in B.C. and a Conservative in Quebec. Quebec independent MP André Arthur said he would abstain unless his constituents wanted him to do otherwise. New Brunswick Liberal Brian Murphy and Newfoundland Conservative Fabian Manning said they were unsure how they'd vote. Eight newly elected MPs -- an Ontario Muslim Liberal, two aboriginal Liberals, two Alberta Conservatives, two Quebec Conservatives and an Ontario Conservative -- couldn't be contacted. Last year's vote, in which Canada became only the third country in the world to legalize same-sex marriage, capped an intense and divisive two-year Commons battle that maintained its political drama to the end, as Liberal minister Joe Comuzzi resigned from cabinet the day beforehand because he could not support his government's move. Mr. Harper reopened the issue on the first day of the election campaign, promising the free vote. He said the Tories would not invalidate the marriages of gays and lesbians who had already wed. [/quote:2f564b06ff]