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Global Warming, please explain.

So since I know from the "What's your career" thread that there are plenty of scientist/smart people on AE, I thought I might try to get someone to explain why I am wrong with the following theory:

My friends and I were having one of those way too late drunken discussions one night when we realized that none of us truly understood global warming, in fact while we were aware of the basic premise: warming leads to melting leads to wet death and destruction, we didn't even understand how that might physically happen. So one of us began jokingly to elaborate a theory and leave it to me to get all excited, I've named it and brought it up every drunken opportunity I've had since them(I live in Spain, so thats almost ona daily basis).

I know it's probably ridiculous, and someone with my lack of education in the matter should not be throwing around words like "volume" and "density" as if I remembered my 10th grade chemistry/physics classes, so I've drawn a visual aid(I'm on my gf laptop, with no other graphics program but Paintbrush which I haven't used since the third grade).

The "No ice" theory goes like this: As you can see, the first glass of water(yes,thats what they are) is a quarter of the way filled with water, the second glass however has ice, in the third glass the ice has melted. The red lines indicate the water level within the glass in all three. So the second glass is the one with the highest water level, because of the ice, but once it has melted, the level goes down. The weird person-like drawing is me trying to look smart in a lab coat ,glasses and a stethoscope.

iceice

Question: If this is true, wouldn't´t the worldwide water level go down if the poles melt?



Sorry if this is insanely absurd, I have insomnia.

 

 


allergictonuts's picture

umm..

k first off I love visuals. Great drawing by the way.  here's my thing.  you have the water level higher with the ice in it which is great, but when the ice melts from it's solid form, wouldn't it actually raise the water level because it's returning to it's liquid form thus adding to the volume? In my defense, I've had a long day at work, so if I've goofed on my theory I ask for a pardon as well.
verticalblue's picture

I think...

I think I would have to agree with allergictonuts. I could be wrong but in my defense I slept through 4 years of science and the only reason I passed was because I had some really dumb peers in my class and as long as I didn't start any fires I just looked better by comparison.
espejitoespejito's picture

Thank you, you should see my

Thank you, you should see my reeeaalll drawings. Ok , I see what you're saying , but... Try this, well actually you don't really have to try it, I think we all kind of know it happens : When you stick a bottle of liquid in the freezer for too long, does it not explode??? Only explanation I can think of is that water in solid form has more volume than in liquid form, therefore, if the poles melt, the water level would go down, not up...

My defense, I've had insomnia for 11 months, to the point where I've actually reduced my sleep time from 8 to 4 hours. So I'm running on ,4x30x11= (that multiplication is way to advanced for me ) hours of sleep.

 

http://comadotcom.blogspot.com

HEYtheskysfalling's picture

It hasta do with the density

It hasta do with the density of water. Water is a polar molecule meaning it's got a positive and negative pole because of the way the electrons are shared between the hydrogen and oxygen atoms. Because of this, and the nature of the hydrogen bonds, water is the most dense at 4 degrees celcius. However, when water freezes it expands, meaning it's less dense. This causes pressure on the bottle and when that pressure gets to be too much because the ice can't expand any further, the bottle breaks. This is also why ice floats on water [in addition to water's high surface tension], rather than sinking.
ff6fiend666's picture

Ice

Most of the ice that could potentially melt in a dissasterous fashion is sitting atop large continents and islands, thus, it isn't directly in the water causing displacement. One the other hand rising sea levels are only one small part of global warming, wacky weather, corrupted climate patterns, winds, and ocean currents gone awry. For instance the influx of fresh waters in the north atlantic,from melting glacial ice, might cause issues with the north atlanic drift making europe and north america much colder place without warm waters from the south being brought up via the powers of convection, fun stuff.
verticalblue's picture

What she said...

I like your explanation a lot better. Plus it sounds smarter and more scientifically accurate.
espejitoespejito's picture

What part of my explanation

What part of my explanation isn't scientifically accurate?!?

jejeje(laughter in spanish), just kidding.

http://comadotcom.blogspot.com

lifesucksinagoodway's picture

Right...

Mountain glaciers are melting, permafrost is thawing and releasing methane adding to the warming, ice shelves are cracking and breaking apart, icebergs are changing the ocean currents temps. Yet I have hope. I radically changed my lifestyle this year and it feels good actually. "a little song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants." Chuckles the Clown
msgulp's picture

also...

keep in mind that 1) a lot of major major metropolitan cities around the world is situated by the coast, 2) there are also cities/areas that are at or below sea level already (venice, new orleans). so a rise of say 6ft displaces a population of tens of millions, at the very least, and we're not talking abt property damage.

fiend is right, it's not just the rising water levels, it's everything that it causes, the ripple effects, the 40+ degrees in england in may, the one month rain in texas, the disappearance of winter for subtropical areas, drought in west coast u.s., it's everything.

"didn't i throw you out of a window? " - jessica/nikki, heroes

omega_800's picture

on that note...

venice is slowly disappearing...meaning that the water level is indeed rising, at least an inch a year...where doors were several hundred years ago along venice's waterways are now partially submerged. yay discovery channel!

you might be able to back up your theory with the concept of condensation. It's kinda stretching it though...and i don't have much of a scientific background...but you can relate condensation, etc, with the earth's hydrologic cycle by which the earth is more or less able to balance it's water levels consistently since water is constantly changing forms...howeeever, the earth goes through cycles of periods of warming and cooling. The last time the earth was in a warming period, the sea levels that we have today were almost 20 feet higher back then...

on a different not: did anybody read about the 100 feet deep lake in the Andes that disappeared sometime between march and may of this year???

Cailean's picture

Venice

The venice problems isn't only because of the rising sea levels. :-)

It's again a multifaced problem!

Since Venice is a tourist hot spot. Bigger and bigger cruise ships tour the Laguna and want to water directly in front of the St.Marcus Place. I personally have seen big American warships and a smaller Italian during the Balkan war in front of the St.Marcus Place. As well as really big and expensive cruise ships as an everyday occurence during the summer months. Therefore they had to dig deeper channels/canals? into the Laguna. This causes that more water can enter the Laguna, resulting in higher floods....

Also the motorboats damage the shorelines and the pollution from the industial town Mestre, actually a part of Venice but on the mainland, is doing it's part.

 

Ok, that was my little Venice blurb.

luva1putt's picture

Hot or Cold

Climate change is nothing new.  It's happened for billions of years.  Most weather modeling does indicate that gaseous carbon emissions are depleting the ozone which allows more sunlight to pass through our atomosphere...hence global warming.  Hopefully, we can slow this warming trend by decreasing emissions. That might give us time to develop technologies that will enable populations to adapt to these changes.

lifesucksinagoodway's picture

dominos...

But what is different is those changes took longer and there was more time for natural adaptation. Now it is like dominos set up. The first domino took many years of industrialization, population growth and the petro-use explosion of consumers(plastic bottles for water anyone?). But the first domino fell and it is rapidly racing through the rest of them. We can reach in and stop the collapse but it has to be a collective, global effort. America and China have a lot of power/money to lose and power/money has driven this global warming. We all need to demand change by consuming differently and thus profit-makers will make changes too. Oh, I started inching up on my soapbox again. LOL. Sorry. It is just that I'm so passionate about this. I'm just an artist so in love with this silly planet of ours that I want it to heal and for us all to have love, peace and enough. Ya know? "a little song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants." Chuckles the Clown
Descent's picture

Water levels

Floating ice does not add or subtract from water levels, so the water levels in your second and third drawings should be equal. However, the disappearance of floating ice reveals the ocean surface, which has a lower albedo than the ice (i.e., the ocean surface is darker, so it absorbs more heat), so more heat is absorbed and retained, leading to more melting ice.

 

Rising sea levels would be caused by the melting of land-based ice, predominantly in the arctic and Greenland.

 

Just a side note, man is contributing to both global cooling and global warming concurrently. Aerosols emitted by industrial activities, such as the contrails behind jet planes, contribute to global cooling. Greenhouse gas emissions such as CO2 and methane contribute to warming. CO2 simply stays in the atmosphere for as much as a hundred years.

Heartsease's picture

Descent...

It seems you've signed on recently so that you could help us understand this whole global warming/global cooling situation and I appreciate that. Is this something you've been studying? If so...please feel free to share more.

I've always tried to be environmentally aware (organic gardening, recycling, etc.), but...would like to have an even better understanding of the situation.

The AE site includes people from all over the globe and while we may live in different countries...different homes...etc. The world is a "home" that belongs to all of us!

Oh...and espejitoespejito...thank you for starting this thread and for your "thought-provoking" drawings. Your posts are interesting (and you amuse me too ;-) ).

Descent's picture

Why I joined...

Hey H.

While not being a climate scientist, I have studied the subject considerably over the past few years, and I try to keep current on the latest developments in the field. I actually come from an engineering background.

I have Google configured to send me headlines related to global warming on a daily basis, and, believe it or not, this thread from espejitoespejito was included in that list! Taking a look, I figured I would join and share what I had found. And I am more than happy to share additional information and answer any questions I can.

If I can't answer a question immediately, I generally can't resist chasing down the answer. :)

This is an issue that involves and impacts all of us, no matter where we call home on this little planet of ours.

And while there are those who think it is egotistical to believe that mankind can influence the climate, I believe just the opposite, that the hubris of mankind is believing we can do whatever we please without repercussion.

omega_800's picture

funny how

this thread is coinciding with the chapter that we're on in my japanese class... we're talking about the ozone layer, CFCs, global warming etc etc... the word for CO2 in japanese is so complicated...

hahah, sorry! Off topic-- i know. =)

snowbird's picture

Global Warming????

Recent research by Henrik Svensmark and his group at the Danish National
Space Center points to the real cause of the recent warming trend. In a
series of experiments on the formation of clouds, these scientists have
shown that fluctuations in the Sun's output cause the observed changes in the
Earth's temperature.

In the past, scientists believed the fluctuations in the Sun's output were
too small to cause the observed amount of temperature change, hence the need
to look for other causes like carbon dioxide. However, these new 
experiments show that fluctuations in the Sun's output are in fact large
enough, so there is no longer a need to resort to carbon dioxide as the
cause of the recent warming trend.

The discovery of the real cause of the recent increase in the Earth's
temperature is indeed a convenient truth.  It means humans are not to blame
for the increase.  It also means there is absolutely nothing we can, much
less do, to correct the situation.

Thomas Laprade
480 Rupert St.
Thunder Bay, Ont.
Canada
Your readers might be interested in these websites.
Please paste these links in your browser.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2332531355859226455&q=The+Great+Global+Warming+Swindle
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070228-mars-warming.html


http://www.unikron.com/play/play_display.cgi?speed=hi&id=canadian_values_march1
http://www.hometownannapolis.com/cgi-bin/read/2007/04_26-32/LIF
Descent's picture

GCRs not primary cause of global warming

Svensmark's research was related to the possible role of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) in climate change. His theory is that GCRs penetrating the Earth's atmosphere create ions that attract water vapor molecules resulting in the formation of clouds. It goes on that if the Sun is creating a high level of activity, its magnetic field prevents large amounts of these GCRs from reaching Earth, reducing its cloud cover, leading to global warming.

The role of cloud cover in global warming is one of the most debated in the field, as clouds can contribute to both warming and cooling by preventing radiated heat from escaping back to space (warming) and reflecting light before it reaches the Earth's surface (cooling).

Svensmark's research and conclusions have been countered by a number of climate scientists, taking issue with his methods and noting that the related cloud cover fluctuation could be caused by a number of other factors. In any case, they have found the role of GCRs in climate change to be quite small.

Here are some references on the subject...

Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate (Nov 29, 2002)

Cosmic Rays Are Not the Cause of Climate Change, Scientists Say (Jan 21, 2004)

Possible satellite perspective effects on the reported correlations between solar activity and clouds (Jul 31, 2004)

Recent Warming But No Trend in Galactic Cosmic Rays (Dec 6, 2004)

Taking Cosmic Rays for a spin (Oct 16, 2006)

Cosmic Rays and Global Warming (Jun 28, 2007)

As for the "Global Warming Swindle" documentary, it has already been shown that the film uses considerably outdated and manipulated data, and one participating scientist has already come out in opposition to the film and the manner in which his quotations were utilized.

newbie's picture

I’ll check that out

I’ll check that out Snowbird, thanks.

I found Al Gore’s “Inconvenient Truth” documentary very eye opening.  Then I picked up the book called “Cradle to Cradle” which was based on how products are manufactured with absolutely no thought to what happens when disposed of.  Even an aluminum can we all recycle everyday is useless (all cans are made of two metals and when combined, produce a low-grade material, then ends up in a dump anyway).

There are many interesting books and articles out there and the internet is a great place to get info. I highly recommend the book.  I’m an architect and we are noticing a definite trend towards “green” building methods and materials.  The more discerning clients are beginning to demand it, which is great.   We can only hope it’s not too little too late.

sheshe1876's picture

making a choice

I am glad that consumers are starting to demand materials that are more "green".  In my opinion, businesses aren't going to change just because they should, it is going to take a shift in demand to change production.  They will have to make what the customers want! Hopefully movies and books like the ones mentioned will make people more aware and try to make a difference...
cassiopeia191's picture

One point that might help

One point that might help explain this is that ice and water have a different density. I have to use metric measure units here because the American ones confuse me so much.

Ice has a lower density than water (even though with water, it does depend on temperature, too for more accurate findings). At 4 degrees Celsius (about 39° Fahrenheit) water has its highest density at 0,999972 g/cm³; ice density is at a destimate density of 0,9168 g/cm³ - this means that one liter and one kilogramm of water are roughly the same, while a ton of ice when melted has a volue of about 1091 liters.

So while you can't see it with your eyes in your waterglass, there is an immediate effect and regarding the enormous amounts of ice melting - the sea levels rise.

About snowbird's entry: for a good while now, the occasional scientist or institute has found absolute proof that the problem isn't man-made. Most of them are sponsored or otherwise financed by the industry. So you can pick the convenient option and believe in the theory that holds us blameless and ignores wide portions of scientific data and research or you can look at all the other reputable scientists and researchers who don't support this thesis at all.

And while I agree that a lot of this has to do with our consumption patterns (us as mostly members of industrial countries who are especially responsible to this development that concerns the entire world), I disagree about one notion in this thread. Yes, consuming differently is one point. But the main point is, we would need to consume less and pay more for it until we live in this perfect world of green energy, overcome oil issues and recycling goodness. And consuming less is a bit harder than demanding "green" products and feeling good about it.

Celurean Sky's picture

Hear Hear!

I agree with everything you've said, especially the part about consuming less. This is key, but unfortunately antithetical to the current version of American policy, since they've completely wedded rampant consumerism to democracy/patriotism. I make a concerted effort to buy less, not buy poisonous exploding Chinese imports, and reuse and recycle as much as possible. I also think that having even a small patio garden helps...and who doesn't like a fresh tomato?
retardrhonda's picture

Oh aye

In a glass would u not also have to take into consideration cohesion and adhesion..and condensation like the ice cools the water but kind of condenses to the glass surface and so water is on the outside of the glass too (cus it thinks its amazing and thats the party trick) and tht wouldnt be counted in the overall volume...i.e. i have no idea what im talking about but i just thought i would transfer the cohesion tension theory from biology ie the xylem and the trunk being thinner during the day wen transpiration occurs...blah blah kind of boring...also does the glass not expand or watever so u wouldnt be able to tell ...ok im going to stop talking now...if someone else has said this (im too lazy to read the comments at the moment but now im slightly motivated) i will be sad and happy..ambivalent is a good word..yes i thought i would leave this on for the craic...

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